Big Sur, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

693
FXUS66 KMTR 210157
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
657 PM PDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1251 AM PDT Sun Apr 20 2025

A slight warming trend will continue through Monday before
cool and cloudy weather returns mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight and Monday )
Issued at 228 PM PDT Sun Apr 20 2025

The stratus blanketing the Bay Area and Central Coast has receded
much faster today than it has over the past few days. For
example, stratus did recede from Santa Rosa until after 3PM
yesterday but cleared completely by 1PM today. The 24 hour
temperature change shows temperatures are running on average 5 to
10 degrees warmer today than they were at this time yesterday as a
result of the much more rapid clearing of stratus today. A few
sites across areas of elevated terrain are even running up to 15
degrees warmer today than they were yesterday! That being said, we
did nudge high temperatures across the North Bay Valleys down by
a few degrees (changing the forecast high from the low 70s to the
upper 60s) in order to account for stratus lingering longer across
the NB Valleys than it did across the rest of the region. In
general, temperatures will be fairly seasonal today with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s across the interior. Cooler coastal
temperatures prevail with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Temperatures are expected to rise further on Monday as zonal flow
develops with high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s across
the interior and low to mid 60s along the coast. Building high
pressure and zonal upper level flow will help to compress the
marine layer to around 500 to 1000 ft overnight tonight. This
should serve to limit inland stratus intrusion overnight and keep
stratus confined more closely to the shoreline/coastal areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM PDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Zonal flow persists through Tuesday with temperatures remaining
seasonal to slightly above normal in the mid to upper 70s for
interior locations and low to mid 60s along the coast. Heading
into Wednesday, a weak shortwave trough will move in and kick
start a  cooling trend across the region. This will allow
temperatures to cool into the upper 60s to low 70s across the
interior and mid 50s to low 60s along the coast. This system is
not expected to produce any precipitation with it but may result
in some locally breezy winds. Current NBM and local high
resolution WRF guidance keep the highest gusts out over the marine
environment but gusts between 20 to 30 mph are possible across
the higher terrain. The cooling trend continues Thursday into the
weekend with high temperatures dropping into the low to mid 60s
across the interior and mid 50s to low 60s along the coast.
Heading into Friday, a deeper upper level trough will move into
the West Coast and bring a low chance for light rain to
northernmost portions of the Sonoma and Napa Counties. At most,
this system looks to bring a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch
to northern Sonoma and Napa Counties with some coastal drizzle
possible further south. Confidence remains low overall that the
North Bay will experience any rainfall from this system due to
guidance continuing to trending rain chances lower and lower
across our CWA and shifting the rain further north. This system
does look as though it will produce breezier conditions across the
region with guidance showing widespread gusts to around 25 to 30
mph and locally stronger gusts across the elevated terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 PM PDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Stratus and fog /MVFR-IFR/ continues along the coast from the Carmel
Highlands to the vicinity of Bodega Bay per satellite imagery. Drier
air flow continues to advect southward over the northern coastal waters
and midway southward along Sonoma County coastline. Recent HRRR output
has followed this pattern fairly closely, showing additional clearing
taking place through the evening to the south of Bodega Bay. Surface
winds are forecast to become weakly cyclonic over the inner waters
tonight and Monday morning, the wind field and radiational cooling
aloft becoming a focus for regrowth of stratus and fog. Onshore winds
will locally bring stratus and fog /MVFR-IFR/ inland. The marine layer
depth has compressed to around 1200 feet per recent profiler data and
spot checking coastal temperatures. A thinner marine layer will help
speed up stratus and fog mix out times Monday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR, then MVFR stratus ceiling forecast 09z early
Monday, mixing out to VFR 17z Monday. West-northwest wind 15 to 25
knots until 04z this evening, decreasing to a light west wind then
shifting to light northeast wind Monday morning. West-northwest wind
resuming Monday afternoon with gusts near 20 knots until early
evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Satellite imagery shows stratus /MVFR-IFR/
filling in across the Monterey Bay. The marine layer depth at the
Fort Ord profiler has recently varied between 1200 and 1400 feet.
HRRR output shows stratus and fog filling into the Salinas Valley
tonight and Monday morning. Stratus and fog /MVFR-IFR/ mix out by
around noon Monday. Onshore winds mainly continuing during the
period between 5 and 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 544 PM PDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Breezy to gusty north/northwest winds are building in the northern
waters along with building north swell. Winds look to increase and
spread across the outer waters into the work week. The gusty
occasionally gale force northerly winds in the afternoon look to
become more widespread into the mid week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...KR

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